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Climate Change Worst-Case Scenario Ruled Out

Climate scientists have updated their forecasts, removing the worst-case scenario of temperatures rising by 3.5 to 5.5 degrees by the end of the century. This scenario assumed little climate action and a huge surge in fossil fuels, but neither of those things happened. Instead, real progress has been made, with solar and wind power becoming much cheaper than expected, leading to a drop in coal use. However, the best-case scenario is also gone, and the world is expected to pass 1.5 degrees of warming, with temperatures climbing past it but still having the potential to come back down. Scientists call this an overshoot scenario, where the longer the overshoot lasts, the higher the risk of permanent damage. Tackling methane emissions is one of the greatest opportunities to keep the overshoot as short as possible, with noticeable effects within a decade and saving lives and money in the process.

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The essential points

  1. 01Climate scientists have updated their forecasts, removing the worst-case scenario.
  2. 02Real progress has been made in reducing coal use and increasing solar and wind power.
  3. 03The world is expected to pass 1.5 degrees of warming, with temperatures climbing past it.
  4. 04Tackling methane emissions is one of the greatest opportunities to mitigate the effects of climate change.
The full brief

Climate scientists have updated their forecasts, removing the worst-case scenario of temperatures rising by 3. 5 to 5. 5 degrees by the end of the century.

This scenario assumed little climate action and a huge surge in fossil fuels, but neither of those things happened. Instead, real progress has been made, with solar and wind power becoming much cheaper than expected, leading to a drop in coal use. However, the best-case scenario is also gone, and the world is expected to pass 1.

5 degrees of warming, with temperatures climbing past it but still having the potential to come back down. Scientists call this an overshoot scenario, where the longer the overshoot lasts, the higher the risk of permanent damage. Tackling methane emissions is one of the greatest opportunities to keep the overshoot as short as possible, with noticeable effects within a decade and saving lives and money in the process.